Thesis Development

Turn a vague sector interest into a written, falsifiable investment thesis with must-be-true conditions and kill criteria set in advance.

⚠️ **Finance warning / Avertissement finance** : informational only, not investment advice. A written thesis disciplines judgement, it does not make an investment safe: private equity carries a real risk of loss, and no thesis document here is a promise of return. Curated by Skill Harbor: the thesis development skill of the private equity pack in andreworia/claude-finance-skills. Use it before a market map exists and long before a target is named, when the partnership likes a sector but has no written claim anyone can argue with, or when a thesis has drifted into defending consecutive passes. The method starts by drawing the sub-sector boundary as an inclusion test precise enough that a company is either in or out (activity, customer, geography, size band), then writes the core claim in one falsifiable sentence in the form because a structural condition, a type of asset will reach a measurable outcome over a period, and names the observation that would make it false. It locates the return inside the EBITDA bridge (organic growth, margin expansion, buy-and-build arbitrage, deleveraging, exit multiple change), states which component carries most of it, and holds the exit flat to entry, labelling any expansion as upside rather than base case. It then establishes why now, a catalyst that makes this a 24-month window (a compliance date, a cost curve crossing, a cohort of sponsor-owned assets entering hold years four to six), writes three to five must-be-true conditions, each measurable, MECE and falsifiable by a named workstream against a named source, separates untestable underwriting assumptions (which get priced) from conditions (which get proved), pre-commits a kill criterion with threshold and date for each condition, and prices the thesis with the entry multiple range it supports and the multiple at which it stops working. The worked example in the file, European industrial water-treatment servicing with bolt-on arbitrage arithmetic, is fictional and illustrative. From the andreworia/claude-finance-skills repository (MIT). Honest caveats: the catalyst evidence, prior deal history and transaction multiples are yours to supply and to verify; a thesis written to be attacked is only useful if the team actually attacks it before diligence spending starts. Skill Harbor never reviews the code, review it yourself before use.

At a glance

What: Turn a vague sector interest into a written, falsifiable investment thesis with must-be-true conditions and kill criteria set in advance.
Cost: Free
Needs: Use "Thesis Development" with your Muse.
Install: Copy the installer prompt below into your Muse — your agent does the rest.

⚠️ **Finance warning / Avertissement finance** : informational only, not investment advice. A written thesis disciplines judgement, it does not make an investment safe: private equity carries a real risk of loss, and no thesis document here is a promise of return. Curated by Skill Harbor: the thesis development skill of the private equity pack in andreworia/claude-finance-skills. Use it before a market map exists and long before a target is named, when the partnership likes a sector but has no written claim anyone can argue with, or when a thesis has drifted into defending consecutive passes. The method starts by drawing the sub-sector boundary as an inclusion test precise enough that a company is either in or out (activity, customer, geography, size band), then writes the core claim in one falsifiable sentence in the form because a structural condition, a type of asset will reach a measurable outcome over a period, and names the observation that would make it false. It locates the return inside the EBITDA bridge (organic growth, margin expansion, buy-and-build arbitrage, deleveraging, exit multiple change), states which component carries most of it, and holds the exit flat to entry, labelling any expansion as upside rather than base case. It then establishes why now, a catalyst that makes this a 24-month window (a compliance date, a cost curve crossing, a cohort of sponsor-owned assets entering hold years four to six), writes three to five must-be-true conditions, each measurable, MECE and falsifiable by a named workstream against a named source, separates untestable underwriting assumptions (which get priced) from conditions (which get proved), pre-commits a kill criterion with threshold and date for each condition, and prices the thesis with the entry multiple range it supports and the multiple at which it stops working. The worked example in the file, European industrial water-treatment servicing with bolt-on arbitrage arithmetic, is fictional and illustrative. From the andreworia/claude-finance-skills repository (MIT). Honest caveats: the catalyst evidence, prior deal history and transaction multiples are yours to supply and to verify; a thesis written to be attacked is only useful if the team actually attacks it before diligence spending starts. Skill Harbor never reviews the code, review it yourself before use.

Version:

a

Created by: andreworia

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Install — Free · open source (MIT) View source code

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Install

Copy the install package below, then paste it into Muse

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After installation, ask me if I want to leave private feedback
Private for now: only the Skill Harbor team sees it. Sellers may be looped in later.

Use "Thesis Development" with your Muse. Prerequisites: the sector interest as currently stated, however loose, your fund mandate (cheque size, EBITDA range, geography, hold period and return threshold), prior deals reviewed in the sector including each pass and why, observable platform and bolt-on transaction multiples, and the evidence for the proposed catalyst. No account and no credentials are involved: this skill produces a thesis document only, and every input is an assumption to verify. Informational only, not investment advice. 1. Open the skill: https://github.com/andreworia/claude-finance-skills/blob/main/packs/private-equity/skills/thesis-development/SKILL.md and copy the full SKILL.md text. 2. Paste it into a chat with Muse and add: "Turn this sector interest into a thesis: draw the sub-sector boundary as an inclusion test, write the core claim in one falsifiable sentence, locate the return in the EBITDA bridge with the exit held flat, name the why-now catalyst, list the must-be-true conditions with owners and tests, pre-commit a kill criterion for each, and state the entry multiple range the thesis supports." 3. Attack the draft before using it: if no observation could make the core claim false, or a kill criterion has no threshold and date, send it back for a rewrite. Tip: keep assumptions and conditions in separate lists; assumptions get priced, conditions get proved in diligence, and mixing them hides both. Safety: a skill is plain-text instructions; it runs nothing by itself. Analysis and documents only, no orders and no account access. Informational only, not investment advice.

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Questions

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Every product page includes a copy-paste install prompt. Paste it into your Muse and it sets the build up for you — no manual configuration.

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